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The Decision-Making Biases Pitfalls. university history essay help: university history essay help

Decision-Making Biases Pitfalls

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Decision-Making Biases Pitfalls

Every process in an organization requires defined decision-making for the smooth running and achievement of organization goals. It is essential to understand that decision-making can influence the process’s outcomes, either positively or negatively. In some instances, the management may decide on a verdict without a concise analysis leading to a negative result. For example, agreeing and making a decision based on what the administration has witnessed in the past doesn’t mean that it is entirely correct; an organization should examine other determinants. Therefore, this study reflects on decision bias by analyzing various cases to understand its consequences and develop ways of avoiding impetuosity in decision-making.

Literature Review

The Use of Company Resources in Marketing Analysis  

A Chief Financial Officer (CFO) argues that marketing is the wastage of the organization’s resources.  The decision is to stop all the marketing strategies, but eventually, the sales start to drop.  The CFO remains unbending that the company should not market its product. The above situation shows that the CFO indicates anchoring type of biasness in making the decisions. Farneti and Dishman (2012) argue that anchoring bias arises from emphasizing one piece of information rather than critically analyzing other information that could help elaborate the situation. The CFO only emphasizes his decision by referring to past data indicating used finances in marketing and the sales dropped. There are other underlying factors to consider in such a scenario. The strategies formulated, target audience, client satisfaction, or performance assessment of the marketing model are significant aspects to examine. Crafting a verdict from such inadequate information shows that the individual facilitates anchored bias in the decision-making. After the sales levels down, the CFO is still rigid that the lack of marketing is not the cause, indicating an overconfidence bias aspect.  Farneti and Dishman (2012) argue that when a decision-maker immensely values their views without weighing the alternatives. The CEO fails to involve other significant consultants that could help analyze the case in detail to ensure the decision is inclusive. To avoid the two types of decision biases, the CFO needs to develop an effective plan that identifies the problem and checks on the alternative information. Hoffman (2012) argues that it is crucial to analyze the alternatives to avoid emphasizing the wrong decision. In this case, the individual focused on a single piece of information without considering other underlying factors surrounding the problem. Through brainstorming, research, and reflections on the past marketing data, the CFO could come up with a concrete decision. The CFO could also involve a marketing analyst who will help develop an essential framework that the organization will use to market its products effectively. According to Hoffman (2012), once the management evaluates the alternatives, the possibility of relying on a single piece of information is lessened, and a concrete decision that incorporates various data is realized. Therefore, to avoid the two biases mentioned above, the CFO will generally incorporate inclusivity and evaluate every piece of information regarding the organization’s marketing structure.

The Merging of Another Company Analysis

When individuals decide to invest in a specific idea, whether emotionally or financially, they cannot give up easily, leading them to make poor judgments. Sunk-cost bias relates to this type of poor decision-making, and the CEO of this organization has indicated the aspect. Farneti and Dishman (2012) suggest that once a person invests his mind into something, there are high chances of making poor decisions due to the unwilling power of letting go that hinders them from realizing mistakes. The CEO has emotionally invested in the idea that he will continue with the merging at all costs. For instance, organizational culture is significant, and therefore, ignoring this aspect will amount to a consequential loss of resources. The CEO is blind-folded with the investment idea emotionally but fails to understand the consequences of the underlying factors that determine a functional merging.

The CEO also has indicated an aspect of overconfidence in decision-making. The CEO assumes that his decisions are final and nobody can alter his mindset. Farneti and Dishman (2012) suggest that it is essential to consider other individuals’ ideas and not entirely depend on oneself when making decisions. When an individual is overconfident, the chances of making impulsive decisions remain high.

Avoiding Sunk-cost bias means detaching an individual mindset from past decisions and also accepting mistakes.  The CEO should reflect on other details that could lead to undertaking the merger process supported by concrete evidence that it will perform well. Farneti and Dishman (2012) argue that to avoid overconfidence bias, a person should reflect on reality, and when making positive decisions, they should incorporate other people’s ideas.  The CEO should weigh the other managers’ ideas which help in making a concrete decision. Though a leader may have positive thoughts, it is essential to incorporate other developing ideas and weigh the outcomes.

Factory Purchase Case Analysis

In some instances, individuals tend to decide on the information they hoped for without understanding the bigger picture about its illegibility. The CEO of this company decides to buy a new company. Without conducting further research, the one makes 94% defective-free products and does not understand that the other makes 95%. The above aspect arises from the lack of reading between the lines and only focusing on expected information. Therefore, this aspect is referred to as confirmation bias, and it makes individuals make poor judgments using the info they readily expected. Talluri et al. (2018) reveal that individuals will conform to information that upholds their expectations and fails to analyze other details’ weight. The CEO didn’t realize that though factory B indicates a 5% in defective goods, it has a higher rate than factory A in producing effective goods. Factory B also provided essential information since it did not try to persuade the CEO using positive information, unlike factory A. The CEO made a rapid decision by focusing on past perceptions of positive information.

Farneti and Dishman (2012) argue that it is crucial to reflect on why an individual’s own decision can cause insignificant outcomes.  The CEO should have reflected on why he should choose factory A over B, and upon making that perception, more alternatives are realized. Buhler (2003) implies that it is essential to identify the problem and research information from different viewpoints in decision-making. It is a risk to base decisions on information that we expected because it could mislead and cause dire consequences.

Hybrid Car Company Case Analysis

The CEO of this automobile organization illustrates sunk-cost bias in decision making. Fletcher (2016) argues that individual exhibiting sunk-cost bias makes insignificant decisions because they are fully attached to the investment they made. In this case, the CEO of this company will waste time and more resources instead of stopping these vehicles’ production and researching ways to promote the brand. It is crucial to analyze the problems behind the poor sales and decide on the best alternative rather than clinging to a decision that could cause more consequences. Hoffman (2012) argues that a leader should develop, examine, and analyze the other options rather than emphasize an outcome that keeps on bearing frustrations.  Another way to avoid this kind of bias is to accept the mistakes and stop directing resources to the investment. Farneti and Dishman (2012) imply that an individual should detach oneself from the emotional aspect of refusing to give up even when the subject cannot work countless times. It is vital to develop a framework that will thoroughly research the issue and provide an operational decision.

Concrete decision-making develops from analyzing the problem, develop a criterion, weighing alternatives and alternative resolutions. After weighing substitutive solutions, the management can implement the selected one and formulate a framework to check its progress. Fletcher (2016) argues that a checkup framework helps analyze the progress and determine its course. This framework’s essence is to ensure an improvement in decision-making by examining and analyzing the arising issues.

Conclusion

Overconfidence bias is the most dangerous to a leader because it may act as a catalyst to other inclinations. For instance, if a leader is overconfident, the aspect will influence sunk-cost bias more, and the chances of stepping back from that decision remain low. The CEO in the automobile case will continue emphasizing if she has an overconfidence trait. Secondly, in confirming bias, people tend to agree on information that re4flects on their pre-existing perceptions about a thing. When one is overconfident because of pre-existing details, making a wrong decision in confirmation bias increases. Therefore, overconfidence could accelerate other biases hence the rate of poor decision-making increases. Once a leader tames the overconfidence bias, the ability to control the other type will develop eventually. Overconfidence creates a false appeal to an individual, and they rarely realize that they could make mistakes. Though an individual should think positively, it is also vital to weigh the outcomes and try new ideas from other people.

References

Buhler, P. M. (2004). managing in the new millennium. Supervision, 65(10), 14-16. Retrieved from. https://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=8414095

Farneti. C, and Dishman. G, (2012). Optimizing Decision Making and Avoiding Pitfalls. Solutions. Retrieved from. https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781315609850-11/optimizing-decision-making-avoiding-pitfalls-corinne-farneti-glenn-dishman

Fletcher, F. (2016). Solutions: Business Problem-solving. Retrieved from. https://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=P-beCwAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PP1&dq=+Farneti+and+Dishman+(2012)+&ots=BZCyjvsjBL&sig=7FLv4JoIniidGQy3fyw9S5MocH4

Hoffman, W. (2012). Problems and Decision Making. Solutions: Business Problem Solving. Retrieved from. https://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=P-beCwAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PA1&dq=wendy+hoffman+Problems+and+Decision+Making&ots=BZCyjvsiCL&sig=1iCUWMGKbIqRn7LnvLehsvJGLWQ

Talluri, B. C., Urai, A. E., Tsetsos, K., Usher, M., & Donner, T. H. (2018). Confirmation bias through selective overweighting of choice-consistent evidence. Current Biology, 28(19), 3128-3135. Retrieved from. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960982218309825

THE DEFINITION OF AN EPIC LEADER. world history essay help

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Definition of an Epic Hero

The people of Ancient Greece viewed the meaning of the term hero from different perspectives. A hero can be defined as a person who achieves extraordinary milestones in life that ordinary people are incapable of achieving. Literary works present heroes as the central figures around whom the authors develop their plot to trap readers’ attention effectively.  Notably, an epic hero is a legendary character with divine powers, strength, courage, and distinguished records of the battle win in the past. Specifically, Homer’s literary works present such figures extensively that provide detailed accounts of the Greek and Trojan all-time warriors. For example, the Iliad presents characters such as Achilles, Hector, and Aeneas as great heroes who fight relentlessly and bravely defend their countries. In that respect, readers understand the cause of war and how the resulting battles were fought through these characters. In that regard, this essay seeks to examine Achilles, Hector, and Aeneas as heroes in the Iliad and define who best fits the definition of an epic hero.

Firstly, Achilles features the greatest hero in the Iliad because he is the central figure of the epic poem. Notably, Homer in line 1 states that his core purpose is to deliver the wrath of Achilles. Thus, Achilles takes the central position as the Trojan war events are tied around his life in the literary work. In that respect, the reader understands Achilles’s position as a legendary character as he offers to sacrifice his life to take revenge for his dead friend. Similarly, Achilles is considered a hero because Homer presents him to the readers as a demigod. His father, King Peleus, had married the divine Thetis, and together they sired Achilles, who is semi-human with divine powers from his mother. Achilles demonstrates bravery by deciding to join the battles as a soldier despite knowing that his life could be dangerous. Moreover, his strength portrayed in the battles makes him illustrious because, as a leader, the Achaeans win all the battles. In that respect, readers encounter Achilles as a battle-tested warrior since Achaeans have won all the battles against the Trojans under his leadership.

Hector is another significant figure in the Iliad who qualifies the status quo because of the bravery he portrays against Achaeans to defend Trojan and its people. Notably, Hector demonstrates great strength when he kills Patroclus despite coming to the battlefield dressed in Achilles helmet. His heroic character is further intensified by divine Apollo’s help to fight Achaeans fearlessly and even kill Patroclus. In that respect, Hector is a battle-tested warrior in the eyes of the reader because he fearlessly leads the Trojans to fight and defeat the Achaeans in the absence of Achilles. Similarly, Hector demonstrates courage when he chooses to face the vengeful Achilles despite being fully aware that h. Most importantly, Hector becomes a household name among the Trojans since he never shies away from defending his country, even if it means sacrificing his life. Therefore, Hector’s character traits elevate him among the Trojans; thus, portraying him as illustrious since he fights to defend his country and not for fame.

Arguably, Aeneas is another distinct hero of the Trojan war because of his loyalty in defending his country and the people he loves. Firstly, Homer presents Aeneas as a mythological figure who is the son of goddess Aphrodite in Trojan. In that respect, Aeneas features the Iliad’s main character with a significant impact on plot development. Similarly, Homer presents Aeneas as a demigod with powers that silence his people from questioning his acts and moves. As a hero, Aeneas derives great help from a divine being Aphrodite when appearing on the battlefield to fight and protect the gods and his people’s interests. Still and all, Aeneas is a hero because he sacrifices Dido’s love to serve and protect the gods and Trojan people in the war. For example, he tells dido that he is ‘duty-bound’ to serve his country and the Trojan people. Notably, his rashly actions and moves expose him to battles where he fearlessly fights to protect and defend his country; thus, making him illustrious among the Trojan people.

However, Achilles fails to meet the criteria for a hero’s definition because of the inability to control his pride. Notably, Achilles is unable to manage his pride after fighting and winning the challenge against Hector. The ancient fighters respected the dead even if they were bodies of the enemies such that they were returned to their people to be buried. Instead, Achilles kills Hector and drags his body back home on his horse cart. This quality tarnishes Achilles’ reputation to be recognized as an illustrious hero among his people. Similarly, Achilles’ immediate withdrawal from the Trojan war after king Agamemnon snatches Briseis illustrates his failure to meet the criteria for a hero’s true definition. Moreover, his withdrawal poses severe impacts on the Trojan people when Patroclus meets his death under the ruthless Hector’s hands, the Trojan hero.

Additionally, on various occasions, Hector demonstrates his inability to meet the criteria for the true meaning of a hero because of his rash decisions. Notably, his courage and strength are neutralized when he foolishly exposes the Trojan fighters to the wrath of Achilles by asking them to camp outside the Troy walls. In that respect, readers view his character as a failure more than a hero among the Trojan people because of failing to defend and successfully execute his mission to serve and protect. Still and all, Hector is portrayed as a merciful character which he vaguely extends to his enemies; thus, weakening his quality to be a true hero. Most importantly, his worst decision comes when he stands still to challenge Achilles when fully aware that he will lose the battle. His decision not to run but rather fightback superior forces such as Achilles makes him fail and eventually gets killed.

Still and all, Aeneas fails to meet the definition of a hero to readers because he fails to execute even a single mission by himself against the Achaeans. On multiple times, Aeneas is beaten and severely injured by his enemies until the gods come to his rescue. For example, Aeneas suffers a huge blow in his first encounter on a battlefield with Diomedes. In this scene, god Aphrodite is the one who saves him from the hands of the ruthless Diomedes. Similarly, Aeneas loses significance on the battlefield when he challenges Achilles, who mercilessly wounds him before another god, Poseidon, saves him. Therefore, it is correct to argue that Aeneas fails on several occasions to meet the criteria for a true definition of an epic hero.

In that regard, Achilles best fits the definition of a hero involved in the Trojan war for various reasons. For example, on his return to the Trojan war, Achilles leads the Achaeans to fight and defeat the Trojans and besieges Troy city. In that respect, Achilles maintains his undefeated record in battle, unlike Hector, who kills and drags around Troy city.   Similarly, Aeneas is incapable of matching Achilles’ ability as a hero in the Trojan war because of his poor leadership of the Trojan military against the Achaeans.

To conclude, an epic hero demonstrates divine powers, strength, and courage to survive past and imminent battles that threaten the very existence of his loved ones and mother country. Precisely, characters like Achilles, Hector, and Aeneas demonstrate leadership qualities that make readers consider them heroes in the literary work. Notably, Achilles features as the greatest hero in the Iliad because he is the epic poem’s central figure, which demonstrates a true definition of an epic hero. Similarly, Hector is another significant figure in the Iliad who qualifies the status quo because of the bravery he portrays against Achaeans to defend Trojan and its people. Arguably, Aeneas is a distinct hero of the Trojan war because of his loyalty in defending his country and the people he loves against impending danger. However, the three key characters have flaws in their leadership qualities and, at some point, fail to meet the criteria for the definition of an epic hero. Comparably, Achilles cuts the list as the character who best fits the definition of an epic hero than Hector and Aeneas combined.

UNDERSTANDING ABOUT DETERMINISM history essay help: history essay help

Determinism refers to the philosophical view suggesting that all events are entirely determined by existing causes that make the future inevitable or predictable. Determinism is usually in contrast with free will though some philosophers argue that there is compatibility in the two.  There are different types of determinism. This paper intends to compare Determinism, hard determinism, and soft Determinism or compatibilism.

Determinism

Determinism refers to the view of free will as an illusion, and there are external and internal forces that govern people’s behaviors in which they have no control.  Thus, people’s behavior is considered predictable.    Determinism’s causal laws form the source of science.  However,   while determinism holds that people have no control over their behaviors, there are different degrees of determinism, including hard and soft determinism. Determinism has two main interpretations, which include incompatibilism.  Incompatibilism involves the view of determinism as a reality, and thus Free will as an illusion also identified as hard determinism. Otherwise, it consists of the idea that Free will is real and, therefore, determinism is not(Libertarianism).  It could also include the view that both Determinism and Freewill are not valid ( pessimistic incompatibilism).  On the other hand, compatibilism refers to the principle that both Determinism and Free will be compatible concepts and that there is a possibility of believing both without being rationally inconsistent.  It leads to a soft Determinism position.

Hard  vs. soft determinism

Generally, hard determinism believes that behaviors are shaped by forces outside human control, such as past experiences or biology.  Hard Determinism is considered irreconcilable with free will. On the other hand, soft determinism is viewed as an alternative position that many psychologists favor.  Soft determinism suggests that biological make-up and environment constrains people’s behavior but only to some extent.  Further, in soft determinism, some behaviors are viewed as being more controlled than others. Soft determinism claims that individuals are determined and are nevertheless still free.   Soft determinism argues that when a person is the cause of his/her actions, he/she is supposed to act freely.   Soft determinism contrasts the hard determinism to mean no determinism.

Conclusion

Soft determinism   may be considered as compatibilist determinism and hard determinism as incompatibilist determinism. More specifically, both soft and hard determinism concur on determinism as accurate. However, the two disagree on whether it is possible to have free choice if determinism is true.

SIGNIFICANCE OF A DEVELOPMENT PLAN ap art history homework help

Development Plan

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A personal or professional development plan is a formal means by which an individual who works with a mentor or a supervisor sets out the goals, strategies, and learning outcomes. The plans usually vary between individuals. A good program allows one to strategize and get back on track whenever things go wrong, and a clear goal is also beneficial for one’s mental health and a sense of purposefulness, which helps reduce stress and anxiety. One needs to follow or consider some steps when preparing a personal development plan; one should set goals, prioritize them, set deadlines for when to achieve them, recognize threats and opportunities, develop skills by increasing your knowledge, and use your support to measure your progress.  This essay focuses on my good personal and professional development plan, which will provide focus and help me map out the paths towards my version of success, and it will allow me to make better decisions and prevent me from taking backward steps.

Values are always related to informing our thoughts, words, and actions, and hence they are always important to us since they help us grow, develop and help create the future we want to experience. Integrity is referred to as the trustworthiness, honesty, and uprightness of a character (Bamberger, I.1983). This value has always helped me act honorably and do what is right in what my duties entail in the organization. It has helped me build a better relationship with my coworkers and follow moral and standard values in my workplace. The positive and appropriate behavior has helped me create a comfortable working environment that has increased its functioning.

Respect is a value that entails honoring the worthiness and the dignity of all the people by treating them with fairness and courtesy. Respect is a value that has helped me reduce workplace stress, conflicts, and problems and it has helped improve communication between colleagues, increase teamwork and reduce stress as peace in the workplace soars (Ng, T. W. 2016). An increase in the level of mutual respect increases productivity, knowledge, and understanding in an organization. It also increases the exchange of ideas, which increases the company’s knowledge and innovation hence increasing productivity.

Learning helps develop staff and maintain their effectiveness by improving their job skills and making them work productively and professionally. Learning impacts the customers by making them feel the impact of this elevated service, and it improves the customer’s opinion of everything in the organization. It has enabled me to strengthen and increase my skills, making me have consistent background knowledge and experience relevant to its basic policies and procedures. Commitment is an important value since it is involved in allowing an organization to meet its goals and stick to its visions as stipulated in its constitution (Tynjälä, P. (2008). Lack of motivation in the workforce could lead the organization to lose all that they may have earned over the years. Committing value in me has helped improve my relationships and become more successful in achieving my goals hence getting more time to enjoy my career journey.

Leadership skills and training enhance employees’ strength, and it helps in empowering staff to take on challenging assignments and projects to provide a quality output of the work in an organization. This value has helped me bring co-ordination among my team members in the organization, and it has helped in the attainment of the organizational goals and effectiveness in the work productivity. It has also helped utilize the organization’s workers since they get motivated and willing to offer their full efforts in skills delivery.

Being a Data Analyst is one of the top jobs that I would like to pursue in the future since he helps in scrutinizing data using data analysis tools. The results that are received from the raw data help their employers or clients in making important and quality decisions by identifying various facts and trends. My interest is to contribute and deliver my full potential skills to help make more advancement in the data analysis sector. My team’s role is to work with my fellow team members to achieve daily, weekly, and monthly targets to increase productivity.

Members who are in an effective team share a higher level of commitment in achieving the common objectives. The team members always share a higher level of satisfaction from being part of working with the team. Commitment as a value will help me improve the job’s productivity since I will be committed to providing quality work in the data analyses team. My personal and professional goals complement and align with the job description since I will be focused more on providing and giving out my full potential skills to make sure I am more productive among my team to help the organization achieve its goals.

Personal development goals are the objectives that one sets to improve your capabilities, character, and skills (Kari, J.2007).  One should identify the areas you can improve to maximize the potential by creating a plan with actioned steps to help you keep focused on your target. Personal and professional development goals are important because they at times lead to career advancement. My long-term goal would be to further my studies to improve my skills, which will help me contribute and support my group members in delivering the duties and improving the organization’s productivity.

References

Bamberger, I. (1983). Value systems, strategies, and the performance of small and medium-sized firms. European Small Business Journal, 1(4), 25-39.

Retrieved from;

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/026465608300100402

Ng, T. W. (2016). Embedding employees early on: The importance of workplace respect. Personnel Psychology, 69(3), 599-633.

Retrieved from;

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/peps.12117?casa_token=zr9mRsbfO60AAAAAU2Ey-66TYnV3eIy25xCMaeasAYy0Q6Ia6dxE-D9tjoKwnPu-dg2Is3h8isj-LsbF6-nEfEt4NkXibw

Tynjälä, P. (2008). Perspectives into learning at the workplace. The educational research review, 3(2), 130-154.

Retrieved from;

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1747938X0800002X

Kari, J., & Savolainen, R. (2007). Relationships between information seeking and context: A qualitative study of Internet searching and personal development goals. Library & Information Science Research, 29(1), 47-69.

Retrieved from;

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0740818807000023