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Genetically Modified Foods Term Paper ap american history essay help: ap american history essay help

genetically modified foods, and discussed some of the arguments for and against genetically modified foods. The paper looks, in particular, at the decision by the U.S. To send GM grain, via the WFP of the UN, as part of their food aid to Africa. The paper concludes that the U.S. were not correct in their decision to send GM grain to Africa, were incorrect in forcing African nations to accept the GM grain, and indeed, acted unethically through their decision to act as they did.

The debate about genetically modified foods has been raging amongst academics, the media, and lay people for more than a decade now: whether they should be allowed, whether they should be sold, whether they are safe, whether they are an answer to the problem of starvation amongst developing nations. All of these questions, and many more, regularly raise their heads for debate, but the truth behind the answers to these questions is highly complex, and is not agreed on by academics, nor philosophers.

Many arguments abound for and against genetically modified foods, and some of these will be discussed here. Some people posit that genetically modified foods may pose health risks for certain groups of people (just as certain people are allergic to peanuts, genetically modified foods may elicit similar reactions), and that genes embedded within genetically modified foods (for example, genes for antibiotic resistance) may be picked up by human hosts, thus leading to widespread, uncontrollable, outbreaks of disease. This is supported by arguments from many GP’s, and academics, who argue that the health effects of genetically modified foods have not been widely tested, and that, as such, genetically modified foods should not be allowed to enter out food chain.

Advocates of genetically modified foods say that these foods could offer the way to many health benefits, with the potential for foods to be modified to have a lesser fat content, to have a greater nutritional content etc. They also argue that genetically modified foods will provide a blanket solution for the world’s diseased, as vaccines could be engineered into foods, so that all children receive vaccines, and mortality rates are reduced in the developing world.

People against genetically modified foods argue that the use of GM crops, manufactured (and more importantly, patented) by a small number of (U.S.-owned) firms, will lead to small farmers becoming beholden to these large firms, which will mean the death of small business, in the developing world (which we are already seeing, on a huge scale), but also in the developed world, including the U.S. This would be globalization wrought on an epidemic scale, and would have devastating consequences for the world economy, as the large, monopolistic, firms could charge any amount they wanted for their seed, leaving competition a thing of the past.

Advocates of GM argue that genetically modified foods could actually help small landholders, who lose crops through pesticide attack, and disease. GM proponents argue that a plant, engineered to withstand these attacks, would allow these farmers to grow more food, with less pesticide/herbicides etc., and therefore to become more prosperous. But, as we have seen, this can only be a viable scenario if the genetically modified foods are not patented and run by monopolies.

Other opponents of GM food argue that GM crops could harm the environment, with no large-scale test having been conducted on GM crops in the wild, and with the only such large-scale experiment being denounced by scientists, as being statistically untenable (Concar, 2003). Advocates argue that crops engineered to resist disease and pests will promote the lessening use of herbicides and pesticides on agricultural land, as we have seen.

Another argument put forward by opponents of genetically modified foods is that making GM species goes against Nature, whereas proponents argue that creating genetically modified foods is nothing more than accelerating evolution, and that, as such, there can be nothing wrong with creating such species. This argument does not hold water, however, as natural selection acts on intraspecies variation, and never on interspecies variation: evolution never produced a viable species through the marriage of two distinct taxa, as GM proponents are proposing, with their ideas about using plant genes in animals, and bird genes in fish.

Until recently, the argument about the incorporation of genetically modified foods into our society revolved around ‘simple’ questions, such as whether products containing genetically modified foods should be labelled, and ethical debates, such as those given above, which have largely been unanswered, and unheeded by the majority of GM proponents, but recently, the decision by the U.S. To send GM food as part of their food aid packages to Africa, turned the debate to much more sinister, and serious, matters, that has repercussions for developing nations the world over.

The U.S. grows two-thirds of GM grain, and cynical journalists, and academics, have suggested that the U.S. sees developing nations, that are starving, as potential markets for their food (see Murphy, 2002). Laying this argument aside, what do African countries think about the U.S. decision to send GM grain to their countries?

Most African leaders have argued that the importing of GM grain would threaten their people’s health, the environment of their countries, and their agricultural industries (Murphy, 2002). The primary concern of many African countries, in particular Zambia and Zimbabwe, who held out to the last minute and didn’t accept the GM grain until it was absolutely necessary, is that the grain would be used not only as food, but would also be seen as seed, and planted by farmers, leading to potential contamination of the native grain. Zambia, as reported by the BBC, decided in November 2002 to reject donations of GM grain, even though three million of it’s people were said to be starving (Plaut, 2002).

This issue was further complicated by the U.S. government’s decision not to separate out the GM and non-GM grain before sending it to Africa as food aid: it was this decision which led Mugabe of Zimbabwe to refuse the grain until the grain was milled (thus allowing for no planting of grain as seed, and not allowing any chance of cross-contamination).

A report, by the WFP, regarding their use of GM grain in food aid to Africa, which was made public by the BBC, showed that the strain of GM grain imported to Zambia, called ‘Starlink’ has not even been authorised for human use by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (Plaut, 2002). Does the U.S. have any right to be using these starving humans as guinea pigs for their products? This is a highly unethical, and cruel, practice, which cannot be justified in any manner.

A further article, in the Guardian newspaper, supports the assertion that the U.S. is using the African food crisis as a way of benefiting their GM interests, and has accused the U.S. Of using the UN to distribute it’s domestic GM food surpluses, which otherwise would not find a market (Vidal, 2002). The article says that the U.S., as the largest food aid donor, has offered more than $266m in GM grain as food aid; in contrast, Europe have given money to these nations, to buy food on the open market (Vidal, 2002).

The issue of giving money, rather than grain, was supported in the article, which showed that more than enough grain was available within Africa, to feed the starving, for example, in South Africa, but that the logistics of transporting the food from one region to another were problematic: the Zambian High Commissioner for London, SK Mubukwanu, requested help with the logistics, in the form of monetary donations (Vidal 2002). The decision by the U.S. To send grain, and not money, as requested, to ease the terrible food crisis, can therefore be seen as rather patronising, as a return to the ideals of imperialism, where ‘the U.S. knows best’, and ‘the suffering African nation can be beholden to us, and receive from us whatever we deign to foist on it’.

As we have seen, there are many arguments both for and against genetically modified foods, all of which have an ethical background, which, it seems to me, has not been debated in sufficient detail. This is frightening, as never before has humankind, through its extension of scientific frontiers, faced such a milestone in its development. We now have the potential to genetically alter species, to produce new species, and we are running ahead of ourselves to develop this technology, before we are either scientifically aware of the results, and implications, or philosophically prepared, as a society, for the outcomes of such technology (whether these be positive or negative).

That the U.S. forges ahead with this technology, and tests this technology on (human) African guinea pigs is beyond belief, and should be beyond the understanding of any reasonable person. The U.S. needs to gain a little more respect for the rest of the world, and in its dealings with the rest of the world: it cannot bully countries into submission for much longer. It is not fair, not ethical, and most of all, not safe, in this day and age to do so.

Bibliography

Bhattacharya, S. (2003). ‘GM crops boost yields more in poor countries’. http://www.newscientist.com/hottopics/gm/gm.jsp?id=ns99993364Accessed 5th November 2003.

Concar, D. (2003). ‘Key GM crop experiment lacks statistical power’ http://www.newscientist.com/hottopics/gm/gm.jsp?id=ns99993547Accessed 5th November 2003.

Dauenhauer, K. (2003). Health: Africans Challenge Bush Claim That GM Food Good For Them. Global Information Network June 20, 2003: 1.

Financial Times (2000). Why you can’t tell genetically modified foods from the label. March 11th 2000: 5.

Goodyear-Smith, F. (2001). Health and safety issues pertaining to genetically modified foods. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health 25(4): 371-375.

Martineau, B. (2001). Food fight. Sciences 41(2): 24-29.

McKenna. P. (2001). Industry can’t be left to regulate genetically modified foods. Toronto Star Newspaper. August 20, 2001: 17.

Murphy, J. (2002). In Africa, suspicion of genetically altered corn. Nations refuse U.S. grain despite growing hunger. Telegraph. August 6th, 2002: 1a.

Plaut, M. (2002). Zambia ‘furious’ over GM food’. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/2412603.stm. Accessed 5th November 2003.

Vidal, J. (2002). U.S. ‘dumping unsold GM food on Africa’. http://www.guardian.co.uk/gmdebate/Story/0,2763,805825,00.html. Accessed 5th November 2003.

Using DoorDash to Promote Restaurant Brand ap art history homework help

Implementing the Market Strategy

Introduction

Just as important as developing the market strategy is the process of implementing the strategy. Implementation has its own set of challenges that have to be addressed, however. These include forming strategic partnerships, managing top-selling products, improving pricing strategies; developing sales Promotion, advertising and sale promotion strategies; developing digital strategies and measuring market performance. This paper will address each of these challenges and offer solutions for implementing the market strategy for OPG.

Strategic Partnerships

Strategic partnerships the company could develop to help promote both companies could be to look for a local brewer who is wanting to expand and partnering with that brewer to brew in the adjacent building owned by OPG. OPG wants to start brewing its own beer, but instead of hiring a brewmeister and investing in the brewing business, it may make more sense to partner with a small existing brewer and expanding that operation into OPG so as to benefit both businesses and get a canning or bottling operation underway.

Another strategic partnership would be to partner with a local event organizer to help promote events and to provide catering for the events. This type of partnership would benefit both companies. It would get the event organizer more attention because OPG gets a ton of traffic, and it would help OPG to break into the catering business by getting its services acknowledged more widely by the public at events.

DoorDash would also be a good partner for OPG, as DoorDash is in the business of delivering local foods to customers. In todays COVID-19 stricken world, DoorDash can ensure that the pub is getting meals to people who do not want to leave their homes. Both companies can thus benefit from the arrangement, and many restaurants have partnered with DoorDash to make this happen.

Managing the Top-Selling Product

The top-selling product at OPG is the OPG Burger, which has been voted best burger in the city twice in the past. The OPG Burger needs to be managed better, however; it was unable to retain its top spot year over year according to local survey because the meat had changed when the pub switched vendors. By basically changing the burger that helped put the pub on the map, the pub was undercutting its own brand and brand value. The pub should be staying true to course and keeping fans happy by keeping its OPG Burger the same. Change can come with other menu items but customers want consistency and do not like it when a favorite menu item changes all of a sudden. OPG should have taken better care with its famous OPG Burger and not been so cavalier about changing the meat. It needs to return to the meat that made it a town favorite and that will help to restore the burger to its top spot in the city.

Existing Pricing Strategy for Top Three Products

The pricing strategy for the OPG Burger, OPG pint, and OPG steak is to use competitive pricing. The pub has consistently sought to compete with every other pub in town by pricing its food and beer items at prices near to what others are offering and in many cases a little below so as to give the appearance of offering a value menu. This pricing strategy is what most pubs in the area use to promote their product lines, as pub food cannot typically justify having a premium pricing strategy and if priced using the discount strategy it undercuts the actual value and worth of the products and leads people to think it is not as good as it is. So it works out in the pubs best interests to use competitive pricing strategy.

New Pricing Strategy for One Product

One product that could benefit from a new pricing strategy is OPG pub-brewed beer. This product could be priced with a premium pricing strategy to reflect the value that is in each bottle and pour. This would have to be discussed with the brewer, and what the pub could do is have a line of craft beers brewed at OPG that are competitively priced to compete with other local brewers and then a line of craft beers that are premium priced to reflect their uniqueness and value. Other pubs in the area also use this strategy, with higher alcohol content craft beers receiving a premium pricing strategy as opposed to beers with a typical alcohol content. OPG could use premium pricing with higher alcohol content brews and also give smaller pours to emphasize the premium essence of the product.

Two Ideas for Sales Promotion, Advertising and Sale Promotion Strategies

Two ideas for sales promotion are to have an OPG Burger Night where burgers are $2 off and an OPG half-off all new craft brew pints for the first day that a new craft beer is tapped. The purpose of these sales promotions would be to bring in customers to the pub on a days when they would not ordinarily be inclined to go out. This is a chance to tap into the market of consumers who are not inclined to come out to the pub on the weekends or for sporting events that they want to watch on one of the many pubs TVs. Instead it aims for consumers who are price-conscious and are driven to come out because there is a good deal that they want to take advantage. These are consumers who like going out but not necessarily during the usual busy times of the week when the prime 21-35 target group is going out. By trying to reach this other target it is a way for OPG to expand its reach and to increase interest in its menu items and beer offerings. This in turn can help OPG to expand its catering mission.

Two ideas for advertising are to have a user generated content contest that invites customers to take photos of themselves having fun at OPG or at events catered by OPG and upload them Twitter with the hashtag #FunTimesWithOPG. This would help to advertise the pub without costing the pub anything in advertiser fees. Another idea for advertising is to promote the pub at events by sponsoring events, such as the local theater productions in the park, the local soccer club, and graduation ceremonies. This would help to get more eyes on OPG and stimulate new customers to come out to try it.

Sale promotion strategies are to have a game trivia night during the week to help promote sales. Game trivia nights are great for bringing new customers into a restaurant or pub as people enjoy trivia and it helps to pack the house (Gibson & Homan, 2004). Young people, the target demographic, especially enjoy trivia nights with friends (Lawson, 2007). Another promotion strategy is to have an annual Flip Cup challenge tournament in the Beer Garden with the intention of targeting new customers and bringing in more clientele.

Marketing with social networks is perfect for companies in the 21st century because the new generation consists entirely of digital natives who turn to social media for information and support. They want to read reviews on Yelp or see pictures on Instagram and Facebook. Social media is essentially where minds are made up and OPG has to take advantage of that playing field to promote itself.

Digital Strategy

The digital strategy that OPG should pursue should include the following steps, recommended by Queensland (2020):

1. Develop more of an online presence

2. Engage in digital marketing

3. Sell products or services online

4. Engage in customer interaction online

5. Ensure online security

6. Engage in supplier interaction online

7. Provide mobile-based solutions for customers

8. Strive for efficiencies through technology

9. Utilize cloud computing

Each of these steps is important for having a legitimate digital strategy and each can enhance the OPG experience for customers.

Developing more of an online presence is helpful in many ways. First, most customers are digital learners today and look for information online before they go about making plans (Gallardo-Echenique, Marqus-Molas, Bullen & Strijbos, 2015). If they can look up a pubs menu online, see pictures of what the food looks like, read reviews, or engage with customer service in real time to get a sense of what the crowd is like on any given day, customers are more likely to have more interest in the place than not.

Digital marketing is also helpful because it allows the pub to appeal to the tech-heavy digitally-inclined upcoming generation. Using social media influencers to market is one example of this. But so too is the process of selling services online. For example, putting digital ads in emails to customers can help incentivize them to come back to the pub. Selling online can allow customers to order online and have food delivered through DoorDash. DoorDash would also be a great partner to have in this respect as well.

Using social media to stay connected with consumers would also help to get more traffic to the pub, as it is a way to curry favor with customers, address complaints and put out positive vibes by posting supportive comments to locals and others who are doing good things around town.

Online security is going to be important for stakeholders. Anyone ordering online or accessing the cloud at OPG is going to want to do so in a secure manner. Having the necessary security settings in place can help with OPGs responsibility reputation.

Staying in contact with suppliers, especially local growers, is a good way to stay connected with the community and to ensure that the best foods are getting served at the pub. It also helps suppliers to know when stocks are getting low and to expect new orders.

Customers on the go are going to want to be able to place orders using their cell phones and are likely to be more appreciative of a pub that is mobile friendly on their site. Sites that have not been updated to be mobile friendly are basically a waste of time. This is one example of an efficiency through technology. Another is to bring in iPads for placing orders so that the wait staff does not have to ring up orders individually from one register station. Using pads can speed up the process as the wait staff can send an order straight from the table where the order is being taken straight to the kitchen and it will go straight to the computer for check-out as well. It eliminates several steps and creates a more efficient environment. Cloud computing would come into play here as well, since it would allow data to be collected from people who visit the website and stored in the cloud for processing.

Measuring Market Performance

Measuring market performance can be accomplished by comparing sales year over year and month over month. It can be measured by using Six Sigma as well. Six Sigma focuses on trends and performance and on collecting as much data as possible so as to be able to explain why performance is lacking in some areas (such as food delivery or food preparation) and excelling in other areas (such as customer service). Surveys are important to conduct with customers in order for Six Sigma to work, but surveys are an important part of any measuring process and should be viewed as an industry norm and standard.

Conclusion

Implementing a market strategy depends upon numerous factors, such as forming partnerships with other companies and organizations, like DoorDash and using digital technology to make ones business more visible to the public. Social media plays a big part in the decision making process of many consumers today so it is essential that OPG leverage social media technology to interact with customers, post pictures, and draw people into its network of friends and followers. Sales promotions should include sponsoring local events and getting people active at the pub through trivia night or Flip Cup contests. Sales strategies can be used to bring in people during the week days when business might otherwise be slow. The strategy for implementing the market strategy is to look at the resources the pub has and leverage them to gain influence with the community of target consumers.

References

Gallardo-Echenique, E. E., Marqus-Molas, L., Bullen, M., & Strijbos, J. W. (2015). Lets talk about digital learners in the digital era. International Review of Research in Open and Distributed Learning, 16(3), 156-187.

Gibson, C., & Homan, S. (2004). Urban redevelopment, live music and public space: Cultural performance and the re?making of Marrickville. International Journal of Cultural Policy, 10(1), 67-84.

Lawson, C. (2007). Victorian Young Planners: News and Views-Pot, Parma and Trivia Night. Planning News, 33(6), 12.

Queensland. (2020). Key components of a digital strategy. Retrieved from https://www.business.qld.gov.au/running-business/it/digital-strategy/key-components

A microbrewery in Colorado growing rapidly global history essay help: global history essay help

Operations Management

A microbrewery in Colorado is growing rapidly. There is a long lead time for the purchase of new equipment, so management must make a demand forecast for the next couple of years in order to ensure that it has the capacity it needs to continue expansion. There are constraints, however, in particular with respect to access to key inputs. This casts uncertainty on the demand forecasts, such that simple extrapolation of current growth rates is going to be insufficient. A decision tree is used to help with the demand forecasting, taking into account different scenarios with respect to the growth patterns and the growth constraints.

This paper is based on a real world situation. The situation at hand is that of a small microbrewery, operating in Colorado. The microbrewery is five years old and has expanded annually since its inception. The brewery produces five beers regularly, and these are available bottled for the packaged trade and in kegs for the hospitality trade. Several products are produced seasonally and these are only packaged in kegs. The company’s sales have now increased to 10,000 barrels annually. The most popular product, the India Pale Ale (IPA), accounts for 50% of total sales by volume. The IPA accounts for roughly 40% of profits, because it has higher ingredient costs than some of the other products. The brewery uses a single brand for its different products, which are extensions of that brand. The IPA, because of its popularity, has been subject to further extensions in the seasonal range.

The signature ingredient of an IPA is hops, which are the flower of a vine. They are relatively difficult to grow, requiring specific conditions. They thrive only at certain latitudes in temperate regions. They are cultivated in all great brewing nations, their presence being a critical requirement for the development of beer-drinking culture in the Middle Ages. New world nations like the United States, New Zealand and Australia have cultivated the hop as well. The hop is relatively delicate, and can be susceptible to disease, in particular if growing conditions are wetter than expected. There are different types of hop, and each strain will produce flowers with different characteristics that impact the character of the end product (the beer).

Most hops used by the microbrewery are domestic varieties, produced in Washington State, with some from Oregon and Idaho as well. Hops available to microbreweries tend to come from a handful of major wholesalers, who source globally. They process the hops, usually into a pelletized form, for longer storage and easier distribution. Only the largest companies, like Anheuser-Busch, are vertically integrated to the point where they produce their own. Thus, almost the entire industry relies on these wholesalers, who dominate the North American trade.

The Operational Problem

The operational problem at hand occurred, when a confluence of factors resulted in a dramatic hop shortage across North America (Morgan, 2013; Welch, 2007). Adverse weather conditions resulted in poor harvests in two sequential years, reducing supply. Moreover, the growing popularity of microbreweries, and the hop-intensive IPA style in particular, resulted in rapidly increasing demand. The conditions of the wholesale industry favored larger breweries, who were locked into long-term contracts with the wholesalers. These breweries were allocated their hop needs. Smaller breweries, like ours, who tended to purchase hops on an ad hoc basis, found that their orders could not be fulfilled. Orders would either be unfilled entirely, or filled on a partial basis.

For the brewery, this represented a significant challenge. It had limited supplies of hops on hand — for some varieties as little as 2 months’ supply. It had growing demand for a flagship product that consumed 65% of total hop usage. With hop prices escalating due to supply issues, and in some cases supply being unavailable at any price, the brewery was faced with a challenge of forecasting. The supply chain disruption was going to require changes at the marketing end. Even if the brewery could maintain IPA production, it might be forced to lower production of other products as it would lack raw materials to make them. Marketing was going to have to reduce dependence on IPA for growth, and that meant new product introductions. However, marketing was also facing a tide of consumer demand that was not going to accept mildly-hopped beer, which for drinkers of microbrews is often equated with blandness.

Worse, the brewery needed to order equipment to facilitate its expanding business. If access to ingredients were not a problem, forecasting future demand would be relatively easy. However, since the brewery needs to order equipment now for delivery anywhere from six months to a year in the future, it needs to have a good quality forecast of sales, including the possibility that it will not be able to produce enough IPA to meet expected demand for that product. Thus, demand forecasting with a number of different scenarios is necessary to give management the insight it needs to make the capacity expansion decision.

Forecasting demand, therefore, had to take into account the trends of past sales growth, the industry trend towards IPA sales growth, and the effects of the marketing department’s renewed emphasis on other products. These products would have to be scheduled, based on expected sales and expected availability of the raw material needed to produce them. Further complicating the issue is that the hops shortage constrained supply from other parts of the world, which could not be imported due to global supply shortage. Also, market response to new product introductions is unknown at this time. Forecasting is important not only because of the 2-4-week lead time to produce the beer, but for the 6-month to 1 year lead time for new equipment needed to maintain the brewery’s pace of expansion.

Operations Management Principles

There are a number of different operations management principles that can be applied to this case. The most critical is forecasting. The brewery needs a means by which it can estimate future demand, in order to set production schedules. These schedules will determine inventory management as well. The constraints on the availability of raw materials represent a challenge for demand forecasting.

Demand forecasting relies on both qualitative and quantitative information. On the quantitative side, there are a number of techniques that can be used. These include simulation and extrapolation. For example, the company is currently on a growth trajectory and this can be extrapolated into the future. For example, if growth is currently at 25% per year across all brands, and the brands are not expected to change, then next year’s demand forecast will simply be this year’s production multiplied by 1.25. For the brewery, that is not the case however.

Most forecasting builds in some qualitative information as well. For example, the base forecast is built on current demand levels. To this, projected changes in demand are incorporated. For example, if IPA is expected to continue to be more popular, it will grow faster. The qualitative analysis that shows this type of beer increasing in popularity is then translated into a growth figure that is then added to the forecasting model. Similarly, if the hop shortage is going to constrain IPA production, then that can also be built into the model, where growth of that type of beer is capped, regardless of where the demand might otherwise be.

A decision tree is a technique that is used to help the company analyze the different possibilities. A basic decision tree might factor in, for example, low-growth, normal-growth and high-growth scenarios. The tree would then have three different demand forecasts. These can be weighted by probability as well, to further help the decision-making process. The brewery might then further build out the tree by adding in probabilities for hop availability, or demand probabilities for individual brands. In this case, it is introducing new brands and the differences in success for these can be high, giving wildly different demand forecasts depending on which scenario comes to pass. The decision tree, therefore, allows management to envision different possible futures and make better decisions as the result of this analysis.

Application of OM Concepts

The current production of 10,000 bbls is divided into IPA (50%), Pale Ale (10%), Brown Ale (15%), Porter (10%), Wheat (5%) and seasonal products (10%). Current growth is 25% per year, but IPA is growing at 40% per year, while Wheat is declining. Other products are growing at roughly 25%. This creates a base projection of Brewery Projections

Current

Next Year

Subsequent

IPA

Pale Ale

Brown Ale

Porter

Wheat

Seasonals

Total

10000

13075

17236.25

Thus, the requirements for hops for the IPA are going to nearly double in the next two years. However, there is a 25% chance that the hop shortage is going to constrain availability, and thus IPA growth will only be 10% each of the next two years. This gives the following projection:

Current

Next Year

Subsequent

IPA

Pale Ale

Brown Ale

Porter

Wheat

Seasonals

Total

10000

11575

13486.25

The average expected growth will be the weighted average of the two possibilities, so (.25)(13486) + (.75)(17236) = 3371 + 12927 = 16298. These projections must be used when considering how much new equipment to order. If the brewery orders too much new equipment, it will have surplus capacity; if it does not order enough it will face a shortage of product and could lose market share as consumers switch to other brands.

The purpose of the decision tree is to get a sense of the demand forecast. In this case, the expected demand of 16,298 barrels is the best figure to use, rather than the base forecast or the negative scenario forecast with input constraints. Naturally, the company will undertake other strategies such as supplier contracts and new brand introductions in order to minimize the effects of possible input shortages. Those can be built into the demand forecast as well, should the brewery so desire. However, it can also make equipment capacity expansion decisions based on the current expected production that has taken into account the two most likely scenarios.

Analysis of Results

Prior to the analysis, the brewery faced conditions of uncertainty with respect to its future expansion plans. It is rapidly growing, but its growth is based largely on the strength of a single product, and there are concerns about the future availability of critical inputs on which that product relies. Substitution of inputs not being an option, the brewery needed to get a better understanding of its future sales so that it could order the right amount of equipment. There are long lead times for new brewery equipment, so the company needed a good forecast. Its current capacity is the before condition, and this is 10,000 barrels, which is insufficient to meet expected future demand.

The results show two scenarios. The first forecast is a normal case scenario. The second is a negative scenario where there are input constraints that restrict production of the flagship, high-growth product. These are quite different from one another, and provide little clarity to management with respect to its capacity expansion decision. However, a weighted average, using the decision tree technique, allows for management to achieve a forecast that can be used to estimate its future equipment needs. The new figure is more realistic and will better equip management to meet future capacity demands than it was able to before, without a demand forecast.

Conclusion

Operational problems are frequent in business. When looking at a company that is rapidly growing, there is often a balance between the pace of growth and the constraints on that growth. In many cases, financing is a constraint but in this case it is the availability of a key input. Building demand forecasts is tricky, but when there is a long lead time for capacity expansion, such forecasts allow management to work within its financing capability to make the best possible decisions. Such decisions allow for more efficient production and higher ROI, because the company has the capacity it needs to continue expansion but does not suffer from excess capacity. Knowing the key variables that will affect the demand forecast is critical, and in acquiring that information the company can build a better forecast and therefore make a better decision. The decision tree technique is an excellent method for making such forecasts.

References:

Morgan, J. (2013) Alaskan Brewing discontinues pale ale due to hop shortage. Craft Brewing Busines. Retrieved July 24, 2013 from http://www.craftbrewingbusiness.com/ingredients-supplies/alaskan-brewing-discontinues-pale-ale-due-to-hop-shortage/

Welch, D. (2007). Hops shortage likely to boost price of beer. NPR. Retrieved July 24, 2013 from http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=16245024

Brewers Association. (2013). Craft brewing facts. Brewers Association. Retrieved July 24, 2013 from http://www.brewersassociation.org/pages/business-tools/craft-brewing-statistics/facts

Deadly Path of the World’s Most Precious Stones history assignment help is it legit

Blood Diamonds: Tracing the Deadly Path of the World’s Most Precious Stones” by Greg Campbell. Specifically it will contain a book review of the book. “Blood Diamonds” inspired the film of the same name and a short documentary that chronicle the diamond trade, primarily in Sierra Leone in West Africa. The violence, bloodshed, and pure greed that populate the diamond mines in Sierra Leone is unbelievable, but this brings it graphically to life.

At the heart of the civil war that cripples Sierra Leone are the diamond mines it contains. The government is ineffectual, and the Revolutionary United Front (RUF) rebels from Libya who entered the country as political rebels but proved they simply wanted to control the diamond mines, are ruthless in their pursuit of wealth. The author notes, “Between these three countries, it’s estimated that rebel groups have sold enough diamonds to amount to 4 or 5% of the global output” (Campbell xxiii). The stones extract a heavy toll on the residents of the countries where this violence takes place, which is why they are referred to as “blood diamonds.” The book talks about the diamond trade from its beginnings in the diamond mine, through traders, and finally to buying and production in jewelry businesses around the world. He also shows how the diamond’s worth has been inflated almost entirely by the De Beers Company, and how diamonds helped fund terrorism, including Al Qaeda.

Campbell’s book is an expose of the diamond industry, and it shows that the diamonds that we wear could have extremely violent and bloody origins. He maintains this has been overlooked for decades, and that it is only in the past few years, since his book came out, that people have become aware of it. The book does not hold back on details, and many of them are extremely gory, such as the man who lost his hands for no reason other than the RUF wanted to take over the area where he lived, and he happened to be in the way. The RUF are brutal, and the author does not hold back on just how brutal they are, which may be shocking and repulsive for some readers.

The author’s writing style is journalistic but enjoyable to read. He packs his chapters with details, such as what the jungles look like in Sierra Leone, that helps the reader feel like they are there, watching the details. For example, he writes, “The city claws its way up the mountains, creeping into the jungle like a disease” (Campbell 31). He uses images like that throughout the book to paint pictures of the surroundings, and it helps the reader feel as if they are a part of the action, whether they would like to be or not.

It is quite clear the author did his research for this book. He and a photographer spent much time in Sierra Leone to see the diamond business for themselves, and he interviewed countless people, from RUF victims to diamond traders, smugglers, and everyone else involved in the diamond business. In addition, he uses books, documents, official reports, journal articles, and personal research in learning everything he could about the diamond trade. In the end, he probably understood the business better than just about anyone else did, and he has a way of passing on this research in a way that is interesting to the reader, which makes the book quite readable.

The author’s thesis is clear, that much of the world’s diamond supply is quite legitimate, but because diamonds are so easy to smuggle, there is a part of it that is not, and that people should really question the registration process that “guarantees” their diamond is not a “conflict diamond” like those mined in Sierra Leone. However, since it is so difficult to trace diamonds because of the smuggling, it is quite difficult to ensure that a diamond is truly legitimate. He builds up this thesis by portraying the violence and murder in Sierra Leone, showing how important diamonds are to the rebels, and how they fund their fighting and activities. The book is often difficult to read, but if the author had not included these details, the “conflict diamonds” would not have seemed so terrible, and that was his point in the first place.

One of the most interesting and disturbing aspects of the book is the stranglehold the De Beers Company has on the diamond business. At one point, they controlled at least 80% of the world’s diamond trade. If there is a “villain” in this work, it is the RUF and their atrocities, but De Beers does not fall far behind them in their business practices. The author writes, “Over the course of the twentieth century, De Beers pursued a plan that was as simple as it was ruthless: Buy as much of the world production as possible and tightly control global distribution through its London offices” (Campbell 108). The author definitely portrays De Beers as a villain, especially after he explains how easy it is to smuggle “conflict diamonds” from Sierra Leone into other countries, bribe an official, and get a certificate certifying the diamonds come from another country. De Beers however, does have a strong stance on “conflict diamonds,” they want to end the practice entirely, because they know it is bad for business.

The book’s strengths are how the author researched the book so thoroughly, and attempted to see as much of the business as first-hand as possible. The writing is also good and compelling, which makes the reader want to learn more about the issue. For the most part, his reporting is not biased, but he does seem to target the De Beers Company, and that seems like it might show he is prejudiced against them in some way. He also portrays the RUF very negatively, but it would be hard not to portray them as butchers, because that is just what they are. However, he manages to keep his bias out of much of his writing, and it seems to paint a very clear picture of the diamond trade, while urging people to fully understand where the diamonds they purchase may have originated. In that, the book serves its purpose well. It educates and informs readers, and that was Campbell’s mission from the moment he began writing this book.

The author shows how the diamond industry has destroyed Sierra Leone, but he also offers solutions for the future, and how to manage the problem. A good expose not only exposes the problem, but also offers a solution, and Campbell’s book does just that. First, the RUF is officially out of business, and that is an important element of this problem. However, the government has to manage the diamond business, and use it to build up the country. Campbell writes, “Diamond mining must be strictly controlled so that, for a change, the vast majority of the revenue will go to the people of the country, not to spoiled dictators and ruthless killers and their henchmen in Liberia and elsewhere” (Campbell 207). He actually believes that De Beers’ involvement in the Sierra Leone industry would be a good thing and that it would help the country stabilize and cut down on diamond smuggling from the area.

This book is more than a presentation of the facts about Sierra Leone’s diamond industry. It takes a look at the people behind the industry, from the miners to the dealers and the smugglers, and its far-reaching affects around the world, from inciting greed to help fund terrorism against the United States. What makes the book successful is that Campbell portrays characters effectively. He shows how the diamond business affects them and their families, and he makes you care about them, which makes the book much more effective.

In conclusion, anyone who owns or is thinking of owning a diamond should read this book. It shows that there is much more to the diamond business than we thought we knew, and that it is truly a very bloody business. It might make some people think twice before they purchase a diamond, and if that was the author’s purpose, then he certainly achieved it. I would recommend this book to a friend to read, with a warning about the graphic violence inside.

References

Campbell, Greg. Blood Diamonds: Tracing the Deadly Path of the World’s Most Precious Stones. New York: Westview Press, 2002.